Federal Reserve
FOMC projections and the dot plot
In June 2026, the median Fed official saw the federal funds rate at 3.8% at the end of 2026 and 3.6% at the end of 2027. The target range today is 3.50–3.75%.
Rate, end of 2026
3.8%
up from 3.4%
Rate, end of 2027
3.6%
up from 3.1%
Rate, longer run
3.1%
median neutral rate
PCE inflation, 2026
3.6%
up from 2.7%
The dot plot, June 2026
One dot per participant. Gold line: median. Dashed line: today's target midpoint. Hover a dot for the count.
Median projections
Fourth quarter of each year. Small figures: march projection.
| Variable | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Longer run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal funds rate | 3.8%3.4% | 3.6%3.1% | 3.4%3.1% | 3.1%3.1% |
| PCE inflation | 3.6%2.7% | 2.3%2.2% | 2.0%2.0% | 2.0%2.0% |
| Core PCE inflation | 3.3%2.7% | 2.5%2.2% | 2.1%2.0% | — |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3%4.4% | 4.3%4.3% | 4.2%4.2% | 4.2%4.2% |
| Real GDP growth | 2.2%2.4% | 2.3%2.3% | 2.2%2.1% | 2.0%2.0% |
What the projections are — and are not
Four times a year, each member of the Board of Governors and each Reserve Bank president writes down where they expect growth, unemployment and inflation to be, and what they think the appropriate interest rate would be. The Fed publishes the collection as the Summary of Economic Projections. It is not a forecast the committee has voted on, and not a commitment: participants revise their views as the economy changes, sometimes by a lot within a single year.
For the national debt the rate path matters most. A projection of lower rates, if it comes true, would reduce what the Treasury pays when it refinances maturing bills; see what the interest costs and the current yield curve, which shows what markets expect instead.
Common questions
What does the Fed dot plot show?
Each dot is one Federal Open Market Committee participant's view of the appropriate federal funds rate — the midpoint of the target range — at the end of each year. In June 2026 18 participants submitted projections. The median for the end of 2026 was 3.8%.
How many rate cuts does the Fed project for 2026?
The median projection of 3.800% compares with a current target midpoint of 3.625%. At quarter-point steps that is 1 increase from today's level by year-end — the median of individual views, not a plan the committee has agreed.
What inflation does the Fed expect?
The median projection for PCE inflation is 3.6% for 2026, 2.3% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028. The Fed's longer-run goal is 2%.
When are the next Fed projections published?
Projections are published four times a year. The next set is due with the meeting on September 15–16, 2026.
Sources
- Projections and dot plotFederal Reserve Board — Summary of Economic ProjectionsJune 17, 2026
- Current target rangeFederal Reserve Bank of New York — Effective Federal Funds RateSeptember 10, 2026
© 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.
All figures are fetched from the publishers above when this site is built; your browser does not contact them. This site is independent and is not affiliated with, sponsored or endorsed by the Federal Reserve System, any Federal Reserve Bank or any government agency. Nothing here is financial advice.