Federal Reserve
The Treasury yield curve
On September 11, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yielded 4.96%, the 2-year 4.63% — a spread of 0.33 percentage points.
10-year yield
4.96%
+0.86 pp over a year
2-year yield
4.63%
3-month 4.07%
10-year minus 2-year
+0.33 pp
positive since September 2024
10-year real yield
2.60%
inflation-protected (TIPS)
The curve today, a month ago and a year ago
Par yield by maturity. Maturities are spaced evenly so the short end stays readable.
- Latest (Sep 11, 2026)
- A month earlier (Aug 12, 2026)
- A year earlier (Sep 11, 2025)
Inversion: long minus short yields since 1990
Below zero, the curve is inverted — lenders earn less for lending longer.
Key yields since 1990
Every maturity
| Maturity | September 11, 2026 | August 12, 2026 | September 11, 2025 | Change over a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | 3.93% | 3.78% | 4.22% | −0.29 pp |
| 2 months | 4.05% | 3.80% | 4.18% | −0.13 pp |
| 3 months | 4.07% | 3.87% | 4.08% | −0.01 pp |
| 4 months | 4.15% | 3.89% | 4.00% | +0.15 pp |
| 6 months | 4.12% | 3.97% | 3.82% | +0.30 pp |
| 1 year | 4.35% | 4.00% | 3.63% | +0.72 pp |
| 2 years | 4.63% | 4.20% | 3.52% | +1.11 pp |
| 3 years | 4.69% | 4.25% | 3.47% | +1.22 pp |
| 5 years | 4.78% | 4.38% | 3.59% | +1.19 pp |
| 7 years | 4.87% | 4.52% | 3.76% | +1.11 pp |
| 10 years | 4.96% | 4.68% | 4.01% | +0.95 pp |
| 20 years | 5.38% | 5.24% | 4.61% | +0.77 pp |
| 30 years | 5.35% | 5.24% | 4.65% | +0.70 pp |
What the yield curve shows
The yield curve lines up what the US government pays to borrow for different lengths of time, from one month to thirty years. Normally it slopes upward: lenders want more to tie up money for longer. The Fed sets the very short end through its policy rate; the long end is set by markets, reflecting expected future rates, inflation and a premium for risk.
The 10-year yield also has an inflation-protected twin. The real yield on 10-year TIPS strips out expected inflation, so the gap between the two is roughly what markets expect inflation to average.
Common questions
What is the 10-year Treasury yield today?
The 10-year Treasury par yield was 4.96% on September 11, 2026, 0.86 percentage points higher than a year earlier. The 2-year yield was 4.63% and the 30-year 5.35%.
Is the yield curve inverted?
Measured by the 10-year minus the 2-year yield, the curve is not inverted: the spread is 0.33 percentage points and has been positive since September 2024. The 10-year minus 3-month spread is 0.89 points.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
An inverted curve means investors accept lower yields to lend for ten years than for two, usually because they expect short-term rates to fall. Since 1990 the 10-2 spread turned negative before the recessions of 1990, 2001 and 2008; its longest stretch below zero in this data ran from July 2022 to August 2024. It is a historical pattern, not a forecast, and the timing has varied widely.
Why do Treasury yields matter for the national debt?
Every new Treasury security is sold at the yields of the day. Bills reprice within weeks, while notes and bonds lock in a rate for years, so higher yields feed into the government’s interest bill as old debt matures and is refinanced.
Sources
- Nominal yieldsUS Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve RatesSeptember 11, 2026
- 10-year real yieldUS Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve RatesSeptember 11, 2026
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